The science behind Rock-Paper-Scissors: Mathematicians reveal hidden pattern in the game that could guarantee you a win
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Rock-Paper-Scissors is thought to have been played for more than 2,000 years.
But a strategy for winning the game of chance has evaded mathematicians until now.
A team of researchers in China has found that most players use a strategy that appears random, but consists of predictable patterns that an opponent could exploit to win the game.
Game on: Mathematicians have found that most players use a strategy for Rock Paper Scissors that appears random, but consists of predictable patterns (pictured) that an opponent could exploit to win the game. This diagram explains that people often rotate from rock to paper to scissors when they are on a losing streak
THE HISTORY OF ROCK-PAPER-SCISSORS
The first known mention of the game is in a Chinese book called Wuzazu, written by Xie Zhaozhi in around 1600.
He wrote that the game, which was called shoushilling, dates back to the time of the Han Dynasty from 206BC to 220AD.
It is thought the game originated in China before becoming popular in Japan.
In the earliest version, a frog which is represented by the thumb, battles a slug (little finger) and a snake (index finger) although different animals have been used.
The game arrived in Europe in the early 20th century and became popular in the 1920s in the UK, before catching on in the U.S. in the 1930s.
The modern version uses rock, paper and scissors, although in some parts of Asia, cloth replaces paper.
It was popularly thought that the best strategy for winning the game was to choose from the three 'weapons' at random, which over a large number of games means that a player is equally likely to win, lose or draw.
This mixed strategy, which is also known as the Nash Equilibrium means that each choice has an equal probability in the next round of the game and previous experiments have shown that this works for Rock-Paper-Scissors, Technology Review reported.
However, convinced that there is more to the seemingly random game than meets the eye, Zhijian Wang of Zhejiang University in China conducted his own experiment and discovered that gameplay typically consists of predictable patterns.
If these are spotted and unlocked by players, they could go on to win the game.
A total of 360 students divided into groups of six players, played 300 rounds of the game and recorded the outcome of each round.
A first: Mathematicians identified a feature of game theory called 'conditional response' and it has never been detected before in Rock-Paper-Scissors (pictured). The pattern could be used by canny players to boost their chances of winning
KEY FINDINGS OF THE EXPERIMENT
Players typically choose either rock, paper or scissors a third of the time - which if picked randomly, confirm the Nash Equilibrium concept.
Gamers on a winning streak usually stick with a particular action, while those that lost a round switch options in a 'clockwise' direction, from rock, to paper, to scissors.
Mathematicians studying game theory call this behaviour a 'conditional response' and it has never been detected before in Rock-Paper-Scissors.
The findings are not surprising when you consider that it is human nature to stick with a winning strategy and make changes after losses.
Dr Wang found that typically, players in every one of the groups chose each option a third of the time – which if picked randomly confirms to the Nash Equilibrium concept.
However, he also discovered that players on a winning streak tended to stick with a particular action, while those that lost switch options in a 'clockwise' direction, from rock, to paper, to scissors.
Mathematicians studying game theory call this behaviour a 'conditional response' and it has never been detected before in Rock-Paper-Scissors.
Dr Wang thinks this might be because the behaviour only becomes apparent in large-scale experiments.
'This game exhibits collective cyclic motions which cannot be understood by the Nash Equilibrium concept but are successfully explained by the empirical data-inspired conditional response mechanism,' he said.
It might seem less surprising when you consider that it is human nature to stick with a winning strategy and make changes after losses.
Dr Wang plans on examining the psychological nature of the game in more detail and is interested in whether humans are hardwired to follow a conditional response strategy.
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