Get ready for a sweltering summer: Forecasters reveal April was the joint hottest on record as El Nino set to arrive (although they claim there will be FEWER hurricanes)
comments
April was the joint hottest on record globally, forecasters have revealed.
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for April 2014 tied with 2010 as the highest on record for the month, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F).
Researchers today said a sweltering summer is on the cards as the El Nino weather phenomenon is set to return - but say it could also result in fewer hurricanes.
April across the world: The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for April 2014 tied with 2010 as the highest on record for the month, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F).
WHAT IS EL NINO
El Niño refers to a set of conditions when the surface of the sea in an area along the Equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean becomes hotter than usual.
The average water temperature in that area is typically between 1 and 3°C (approximately 2 and 5°F) warmer than normal during this event.
This has the effect of adding huge amounts of heat and moisture into the atmosphere, ultimately affecting patterns of air pressure and rainfall across the Pacific and globally.
Strong El Niño events occur every 20 years or so, but researchers recently said this could drop to 10 years thanks to global warming.
At the opposite end of the scale, La Niña is the climatological counterpart to El Niño.
La Niña refers to periods when sea-surface temperatures around the Equator are cooler than normal.
This has a similar affect on air pressure and rainfall because it suppresses how much heat and moisture enters the atmosphere.
A slower-than-usual hurricane season is expected this year because of an expected El Nino, forecasters said - but they warned that it takes only one storm to wreak havoc and urged Americans to be prepared.
The El Nino, which warms part of the Pacific every few years and changes rain and temperature patterns around the world, will likely reduce the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in New York City.
Cooler temperatures on the surface of the Atlantic Ocean compared with recent years will also lower the probability of hurricane formation.
Officials expect about eight to 13 named tropical storms and three to six hurricanes. Just one or two major hurricanes with winds over 110 miles per hour are forecast.
The six-month storm season begins June 1.
Forecasters got it wrong last year when they predicted an unusually busy hurricane season. There were just 13 named storms and two hurricanes, Umberto and Ingrid, both of which were Category 1, the lowest on the scale that measures hurricanes by wind speed.
There were no major hurricanes.
In 2012, storm surge was devastating to the New York area when Superstorm Sandy slammed the East coast, killing 147 people and causing $50 billion in damage.
Sandy lost hurricane status when it made landfall in New Jersey.
Person Walking in Hurricane Andrew: A slower-than-usual hurricane season is expected this year because of an expected El Nino, forecasters said
A new mapping tool this year will keep coastal residents updated on the storm surge threat in their communities.
The Atlantic hurricane season goes through cycles of high and low activity about every 25 to 40 years based on large scale climatic patterns in the atmosphere.
Since 1995, an average season has 15 named tropical storms, eight hurricanes and about four major storms.
The last time a major hurricane made landfall in the U.S. was when Wilma came ashore in 2005, an eight-year stretch that is the longest on record.
During the six-month season, forecasters name tropical storms when top winds reach 39 mph; hurricanes have maximum winds of at least 74 mph.
However, Meteorologists are predicting that the weather will go wild later this year.
The cause is El Niño, a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, which can trigger both floods and drought in different parts of the world.
But while scientists are anticipating a stronger-than-usual El Niño, many are warning that the planet is ill prepared to deal with the consequences.
A spike in Pacific Ocean sea temperatures and the rapid movement of warm water eastwards have increased fears this year's El Niño could be one of the strongest yet. El Niño, pictured left, is a warming of sea temperatures that can trigger floods and droughts. La Niña, pictured right, is when sea temperatures drop
The more heat in the Pacific, the large the El Niño and right now a ball of warm water is crossing the ocean 490ft (150 metres) below the surface.
A majority of weather forecasting models indicate that the phenomenon may develop around the middle of the year, but it was too early to assess its likely strength, the U.N. World Meteorological Organisation said on 15 April.
Meteorologists claim the prospect of an El Niño will likely be firmed up 'in the next month or two', although forecasting its strength will be hard to do.
The chance of it developing in 2014 exceeded 70 per cent according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.
But according to a report in New Scientist, some El Niño researchers say forecasters are being too conservative.
'One thing I hear over and over again is 'we do not want to create a panic', Axel Timmermann of the University of Hawaii in Honolulu told the magazine.
One reason is that forecasting a big El Niño would increase food prices. 'But it may be better to have this reaction at an early stage, when farmers can still adapt, rather than later,' he said.
The worst El Niño on record in 1997 to 1998 was blamed for massive flooding along China's Yangtze river, pictured, that killed over 1,500 people. Australian climate experts claim the recent rises in sea temperature are above those seen in previous El Niño years and suggest this year's events will be 'significant'
Researchers claim that California, which faces floods, is well prepared for emergencies.
India is thought to have invested in water storage in event of a drought. Scientists' main concern is Central and South America, Asia and Australia.
The worst El Niño on record in 1997 and 1998 was blamed for massive flooding along China's Yangtze river, responsible for killing more than 1,500 people.
A strong El Niño also increases fears that production of many key agricultural commodities in Asia and Australia will suffer.
Strong El Niño events occur every 20 years or so, but researchers recently said this could drop to 10 years thanks to global warming. Here, the village of Puerto Maldonado, Peru, is seen flooded in January 2003 as a result of El Niño rains, which drove 16,000 people from their homes
The impact of this year's El Niño events is expected to be felt by every continent. During the 1997 to 1998 events, damages were said to have been in the region of between $35billion to $45billion. Beachfront homes in Malibu, California, pictured, collapsed after two weeks of high surf under El Niño weather conditions
EXTREME EL NINO EVENTS
Extreme El Niño events develop differently from standard El Niños, which first appear in the western Pacific.
The extreme events occur when sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C develop in the normally cold and dry eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
This different location for the origin of the temperature increase causes massive changes in global rainfall patterns.
The new patterns result in flash floods and torrential rain in some places and devastating droughts and wild fires in others.
Extreme El Niño events are expected to double in frequency over the next 100 years.
The impact of extreme El Niño events is felt by every continent.
In January, a team of international scientists said extreme weather events fuelled by unusually strong El Niños are expected to double over the next century.
Climate scientists warned countries could be struck by devastating droughts, wild fires and dramatic foods approximately every ten years.
The team, made up of experts from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CoECSS), the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and CSIRO, also spotted a link between global warming and extreme El Niño events.
'We currently experience an unusually strong El Niño event every 20 years. Our research shows this will double to one event every 10 years,' said Agus Santoso of CoECSS, who co-authored the study.
'El Niño events are a multi-dimensional problem and only now are we starting to understand better how they respond to global warming,' he added.
Extreme El Niño events develop differently from standard El Niños, which first appear in the western Pacific.
The extreme events occur when sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C develop in the normally cold and dry eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Scientists in Germany recently said they can forecast disruptive El Niño events a year in advance. They hope the forecast will help countries develop better strategies to counter the effects such as wild fires, pictured in the Philippines. Meteorologists said the prospect of a 2014 El Niño will be firmed up 'in the next month or two'
This different location for the origin of the temperature increase causes massive changes in global rainfall patterns, which result in floods and torrential rain in some places and devastating droughts and wild fires in others.
The impacts of extreme El Niño events that extended to every continent across the globe in 1997, for example, killed around 23,000 people.
Dr Cai continued: 'During an extreme El Niño event countries in the western Pacific, such as Australia and Indonesia, experienced devastating droughts and wild fires, while catastrophic floods occurred in the eastern equatorial region of Ecuador and northern Peru.'
In Australia, the drought and dry conditions caused by the 1982 and 1983 extreme El Niño led to the Ash Wednesday Bushfire in southeast Australia, which resulted in 75 deaths.
The scientists examined 20 climate models to simulate major rainfall reorganisation during extreme El Niño events. This satellite image shows the El Nino weather phenomena in 1997, represented by the the white area at the equator, which shows how the warm waters stretch from Peru to Alaska
Put the internet to work for you.
0 comments:
Post a Comment