Could Google fix an election? Researchers find search ranking can influence undecided voters


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Altering search results has a major effect on the voting preferences of undecided voters and could swing a close election, researchers have claimed.

Researchers analysing an Indian election found undecided voters paid far more attention to search rankings than previously thought.

They say search results can alter the outcome by up to 12% in some cases.

Researchers analysing an Indian election found undecided voters paid far more attention to search rankings than previously thought. The new study suggests that biased search rankings can be used to fix the outcome of elections in  which the winner is projected to win by a margin up to 2.9%.

Researchers analysing an Indian election found undecided voters paid far more attention to search rankings than previously thought. The new study suggests that biased search rankings can be used to fix the outcome of elections in which the winner is projected to win by a margin up to 2.9%.

HOW THEY DID IT

In the new study, participants were randomly assigned to groups in which search rankings favored either Mr Kejriwal, Mr Gandhi, or Mr Modi in the recent Lok Sabha Elections.

Real search rankings and web pages were used, and people were asked to research all the candidates just as they would on Google.

The only difference between the groups was the order in which the search results were displayed.

The new study suggests that biased search rankings can be used to fix the outcome of races in India in which the winner is projected to win by a margin up to 2.9%.

This can be done just by influencing undecided voters who use the internet – a small but important group of voters that is sure to grow in coming years.

Studies show that the higher the rank, the more people trust the result, which is why companies are spending billions now to push their products higher.

Researchers at the American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology in California wanted to see if the effect was similar on political candidates.

 

In research conducted last year in the US, researchers found that search rankings biased in favor of a candidate could push the preferences of undecided voters toward that candidate by 15% or more.

The team carried out a new study in recent weeks with more than 2,000 undecided voters throughout India.

The researchers have shown that votes in India can easily be pushed toward one candidate or another by about 12% - double that amount in some demographic groups - enough to determine the outcomes of many close races.

'This is a very serious matter – a real threat to democracy,' says Dr Robert Epstein, lead researcher in the study.

'If two candidates were both trying to push their rankings higher, they would be competing, and that's fine.

'But if Google, which has a monopoly on search in India, were to favor one candidate, it could easily put that candidate in office by manipulating search rankings, and no one could counter what they were doing.

Even if without human intervention the company's search algorithm favored one candidate, thousands of votes would still be driven to that candidate.'

However, Google hit back at the claimed, telling MailOnline: 'Providing relevant answers has been the cornerstone of Google's approach to search from the very beginning.

'It would undermine people's trust in our results and company if we were to change course.'

In the new study, participants were randomly assigned to groups in which search rankings favored either Mr Kejriwal, Mr Gandhi, or Mr Modi.

The researchers have shown that votes in India can easily be pushed toward one candidate or another by about 12% by search engine rankings

The researchers have shown that votes in India can easily be pushed toward one candidate or another by about 12% by search engine rankings

Real search rankings and web pages were used, and people were asked to research all the
candidates just as they would on Google.

The only difference between the groups was the order in which the search results were displayed.

The new study suggests that biased search rankings can be used to fix the outcome of races in India in which the winner is projected to win by a margin up to 2.9%.

This can be done just by influencing undecided voters who use the internet – a small but important group of voters that is sure to grow in coming years.

Worldwide, the researchers say, upwards of 25% of national elections are won by margins under 3%.

The study also shows that certain demographic groups are especially vulnerable.

The voting preferences of 19% of women over 35 were shifted in the study, as were the voting preferences of 18% of voters who were unemployed.

'Of particular concern,' says Dr Epstein, 'is the fact that 99% of the people in our study seemed to be unaware that the search rankings they saw were biased.

'That means Google has the power to manipulate elections without anyone suspecting they're doing so.

'To prevent undue influence, election-related search rankings need to be regulated and monitored, as well as subjected to equal-time rules.'



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