El Niño may still appear but won't be enough to end droughts in California, claims NASA
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Ecuador is about to be hit by eastward-moving waves of warm water, resurrecting hopes that El Niño may be on its way.
El Niño - a heating of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific - affects wind patterns and can trigger both floods and drought in different parts of the globe.
The most recent waves increase the chances that parched California could be in for some relief - albeit small - if weather patterns take a turn later this year.
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El Niño refers to a set of conditions when the surface of the sea in an area along the Equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean becomes hotter than usual. The waves of warm water are pictured
But Nasa has warned that 'fickle' El Niño will likely be weak if it does appear, providing only limited relief for a drought-ridden west coast.
Around 430,000 acres of land will be left fallow in California - because there hasn't been enough rain or snow coming from the nearby mountain ranges.
Prospects had been fading for an El Niño event this year, but now there's a glimmer of hope for a modest comeback.
Nasa recently spotted areas of higher sea level indicating warmer than normal water in the Pacific Ocean.
Now crossing the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, these warm waves, known as Kelvin waves, appear as the large area of warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures hugging the equator.
Kelvin waves of high sea level (red/yellow) are seen crossing the Pacific Ocean at the equator. The waves may be due to El Niño events. Green indicates normal sea level, and blue/purple areas are lower than normal
The Kelvin waves are travelling eastward and should arrive off the coast of Ecuador in late September and early October.
Climatologist Bill Patzert of Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, warned it's too early to know for sure, but he would not be surprised if the latest Kelvin waves are the 'last hurrah' for El Niño.
'Since February 2014, the prospect of an El Niño has waxed and waned,' he said.
'This late in the season, the best we can expect is a weak to moderate event. What comes next is not yet clear.
'But for the drought-plagued American West, the possibility of a badly needed drenching is fading,' continued Patzert.
If it appears, this year's El Niño is expected to be mild. However, scientists expect extreme weather events fuelled by unusually strong El Niños will double this century.
The worst El Niño on record, in 1997 and 1998, was blamed for massive flooding along China's Yangtze river, responsible for killing more than 1,500 people.
The impact of extreme El Niño events is felt by every continent, and the event in 1997 cost up to £27.4 billion ($45 billion) in damage globally.
Extreme El Niño events develop differently from standard El Ninos, which first appear in the western Pacific.
The extreme events occur when sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C develop in the normally cold and dry eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Around 430,000 acres of land will be left fallow in California - because there hasn't been enough rain or snow coming from the nearby mountain ranges. Pictured is a mud flow along Mud Creek Canyon in the Shasta-Trinity National Forest which may be related to California's prolonged drought
The sea temperature as seen from space on September 18. Green shows normal sea level, and blue and purple areas are lower than normal. Strong El Niño events occur every 20 years or so, but researchers recently said this could drop to 10 years thanks to global warming
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