sciencetech-blog

comments

New York could undergo devastating increases in temperature, rainfall and sea level as a result of global warming.

This is according to a Nasa-backed report which predicts annual temperatures will increase 4.1°F to 5.7°F by the 2050s and 5.3°F to 8.8°F by the 2080s.

The frequency of heat waves is set rise to two per year in the 1980s to roughly six per year by the 2080s.

Future 100-year flood zones for New York City. Large areas of Queens (shown in light green) will be hit by floods in the 2020s, while areas of Brooklyn and the Bronx (yellow) will face the same fate in the 2050s. The purple shows the high-risk zones in New York

The predictions have been made by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2015, which is co-chaired by Nasa researcher, Cynthia Rosenzweig.

While New York summers will get even hotter, rainfall will increase four to 11 per cent by the 2050s and five to 13 per cent by the 2080s, the report predicts.

Sea levels have already risen in New York City 1.1ft (0.3 metres) since 1900. That is almost twice the observed global rate of 0.5 to 0.7 inches per decade.

'As was demonstrated by Hurricane Sandy, populations living in coastal and low-lying areas, the elderly and very young, and lower-income neighborhoods are highly vulnerable,' the report said.

Pictured are observed and projected temperature in New York City.  The frequency of heat waves is set rise to two per year in the 1980s to roughly six per year by the 2080s, according to the report

Map of annual temperature changes in the Northeast in 2050. In New York, Nasa predicts annual temperatures will increase 4.1°F to 5.7°F by the 2050s and 5.3°F to 8.8°F by the 2080s

The group has created a map which reveals how large areas of Queens will be hit by floods in the 2020s, while areas of Brooklyn and the Bronx will face the same fate in the 2050s.

Coastal areas of Staten Island and Manhattan will be battling high tides as sea level rises 10 inches in as little as five years, the report claims.

Projections for sea level rise in New York City will increase from 11 inches to 21 inches by the 2050s, 18 inches to 39 inches by the 2080s, and, 22 inches to 50 inches.

In the worst case, sea levels will rise by up to six feet (1.8 metres), by 2100.

'Climate change research isn't just something for the future,' said Rosenzweig. 'It's affecting how key policy decisions are being made now.'

The report also uses Nasa Landsat 7 data to map the surface temperature of mid-town Manhattan and show the cooling effect of Central Park

The report follows a separate study earlier this week which found the western US will face increasingly severe mega-droughts later this century if no action is taken to curb climate change.

The report said that 'unprecedented drought conditions' - the worst in more than 1,000 years - are likely to come to the Southwest and Central Plains after 2050 and persist because of global warming.

It was the first study to predict that the coming intense dry spells could exceed the decades-long mega-droughts that occurred centuries ago and are blamed for the demise of certain civilisations in the late 13th century.

'Nearly every year is going to be dry toward the end of the 21st century compared to what we think of as normal conditions now,' said study lead author Dr Benjamin Cook, a Nasa atmospheric scientist.

'We're going to have to think about a much drier future in western North America.'

According to the study, published in the journal Science Advances, there is a more than 80 per cent chance that much of central and the western US will have a mega-drought lasting at least 35 years later this century.

'Water in the Southwest is going to become more precious than it already is,' said study co-author Dr Toby Ault of Cornell University.

'I was honestly surprised at just how dry the future is likely to be.'

'I look at these future mega-droughts like a slow moving natural disaster. We have to put mega-droughts into the same category as other natural disasters that can be dealt with through risk management.'

Nasa scientists used tree rings to understand past droughts and climate models incorporating soil moisture data to estimate future drought risk in the 21st century (shown)

Researchers say the current mega-drought in the US is going to get worse. They say there will be more and more droughts starting in 2050. And there's an 80% chance one could last at least 35 years. Pictured is a warning buoy sitting on the dry, cracked bed of Lake Mendocino near Ukiah, California