Should fossil fuels remain dead and buried? Majority of coal, oil and gas reserves must remain underground to halt climate change, study claims


comments

The vast proportion of the world's fossil fuels must remain buried in the ground if global warming targets are to be met, according to a new study.

More than 80 per cent of the known coal deposits, a third of the world's oil reserves and half of the gas must not be burned before 2050 if temperature increases are to be kept to within two degrees C of pre-industrial levels.

Even then world leaders will face just a fifty per cent chance of meeting their goal of capping warming to these levels.

A third of the world's crude oil, like above, will have to remain untapped underground to limit climate change

A third of the world's crude oil, like above, will have to remain untapped underground to limit climate change

Last year the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that the world was on course to experience 'dangerous' levels of global warming unless greenhouse gas emissions could be capped.

If fossil fuels continue to be burned at the current rate, it warned, then the world was on track to warm by more than 5 degrees C by the end of the century.

REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF FOSSIL FUELS UNBURNABLE  BEFORE 2050
Country/region  Oil (billions of barrels) Gas (Trillions of cubic metres) Coal (Gt) 
Africa 284.430 
Canada 400.35.4 
China and India2.5 207 
Former Soviet Union 28 36 209 
Central and South America 63 5.0 11 
Europe 5.3 0.3 74 
Middle East 264 47 3.4 
Pacific Nations2.7 2.0 85 
Other developing Asian nations 2.8 2.1 17 
USA 4.6 0.5 245
Global 449 100 887 
Estimates of fossil fuel reserves considered unburnable in study by Christophe McGlade and Paul Ekins from UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources published in Nature

The latest study, published in the journal Nature, experts at University College London's Institute for Sustainable Resources, assessed how much fossil fuel could be extracted to meet the two degree limit.

It found that 223 billion fewer barrels of oil and 290 billion fewer tonnes of coal should be burned to meet this goal.

The researchers also examined the implications for different regions of the world should it attempt to reach this goal.

They said that China, Russia and the United States would suffer most as they are forced to leave the majority of their huge coal reserves untapped, having a major impact on industry and the economies in these regions.

More than 260 billion barrels of oil will have to remain unused in the Middle East - equivalent to the entire oil reserves in Saudi Arabia.

The Middle East should also leave more than 60 per cent of its gas reserves in the ground.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chaired by Rajendra Pachauri (above), has warned that global warming needs to be limited to within two degrees Celsius if it wants to avoid dangerous climate change

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chaired by Rajendra Pachauri (above), has warned that global warming needs to be limited to within two degrees Celsius if it wants to avoid dangerous climate change

The US, which transports large amounts of coal via barge on the Ohio River (above) will have to leave the majority of its coal reserves untapped, something that could have a huge impact on its industry and economy

The US, which transports large amounts of coal via barge on the Ohio River (above) will have to leave the majority of its coal reserves untapped, something that could have a huge impact on its industry and economy

The researchers also urged against development of the hard to reach resources in the Arctic as the oil there and said it should be classified as unburnable.

Countries like Canada and Russia are thought to be keen to tap into the estimated 100 billion barrels of oil and 35 trillion cubic metres of gas in the Arctic circle.

However, the researchers said that shale oil and gas resources, which are currently being explored as a new source of energy in the UK, could safely be developed in Europe, but would have to be balanced by other fossil fuels remaining unburned elsewhere.

The study also found that new technology that is aimed at reducing the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels - known as carbon capture storage - will not have any impact until after 2050.

While the US is a major producer of oil from wells like those above, the Middle East is most likely to suffer as a result of attempts to leave oil reserves untapped as it will need to leave 260 million barrels in the ground

While the US is a major producer of oil from wells like those above, the Middle East is most likely to suffer as a result of attempts to leave oil reserves untapped as it will need to leave 260 million barrels in the ground

Carbon capture storage technology, that aims to strip carbon dioxide out of emissions from coal fired power stations like above, is too expensive and immature to have much of an impact before 2050, the study warns

Carbon capture storage technology, that aims to strip carbon dioxide out of emissions from coal fired power stations like above, is too expensive and immature to have much of an impact before 2050, the study warns

RODENTS ARE CLIMATE VILLIANS 

They might be fluffy faced, buck-toothed little creatures, but two species of rodent have been identified the latest culprits to be contributing to climate change

Researchers have found that the arctic ground squirrel and the beaver may be playing a far greater role in global warming than had previously been realised.

It means that scientists will in the future have to alter their theories around anthropogenic climate change to take account of 'rodentopogenic' influences.

Researchers studying permafrost in the Arctic found that ground squirrels there are hastening the release of greenhouse gases from the frozen soil where they build their burrows.

A separate study found that beavers were now causing the release of 200 times more methane from the pond they create than was being released in 1900 due to rising numbers of the creatures.

This, they say, would mean strict limits will still have to be imposed on how much fossil fuels can be burned before that time.

Dr Christophe McGlade, a researcher at the UCL Institute of Sustainable Resources who was amoung the study's authors, said: 'Policy makers must realise that their instincts to completely use the fossil fuels within their countries are wholly incompatible with their commitments to the 2C goal.

'If they go ahead with developing their own resource, they must be asked which reserves elsewhere should remain unburnt in order for the carbon budget not to be exceeded.'

Professor Paul Ekins, an economist and director of the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, questioned whether energy companies should have spent £430 billion in 2013 searching for fossil fuels that cannot be burned.

He added that it may not be worth investing large sums of money in extracting 'the last drops' of North Sea oil rather than importing cheaper resources from elsewhere.

He said: 'They will need to rethink such substantial budgets if policies are implemented to support the 2 degree C limit, especially as new discoveries cannot lead to increased aggregate production.'

Dr Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, said that rather than slowing down, fossil fuel consumption was likely to accelerate over the coming decades.

He said the recent deal between China and the United States would see China continue to increase its emissions to a peak level in 2030. 

He said: 'It is unrealistic to expect governments to implement policies that will come even close to these goals of leaving fossil fuels in the ground.' 

The researchers claim that it will make no commercial sense trying to seek out and extract the last remaining reserves in places like the North Sea (above) and companies should concentrate on cheaper resources

The researchers claim that it will make no commercial sense trying to seek out and extract the last remaining reserves in places like the North Sea (above) and companies should concentrate on cheaper resources



IFTTT

Put the internet to work for you.

Turn off or edit this Recipe

0 comments:

Post a Comment