Mars One colonists will die in 68 DAYS, study claims


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Mars One is an ambitious plan by a Dutch entrepreneur to send people to Mars next decade and start building a colony there.

The proposal has received fierce criticism for its lack of realistic goals, and now one study has dealt the team a crushing blow - by saying the colonists will begin dying in 68 days.

Low air pressure, habitats at risk of explosion and a lack of spare parts are among the potentially fatal dangers that apparently await anyone who makes the inaugural trip.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology scientists analysed the plan by Dutch company Mars One to create a colony on Mars by the next decade (illustrated). The researchers say it has a number of flaws and the proposal is doomed to failure including a risk of suffocation and starvation

Massachusetts Institute of Technology scientists analysed the plan by Dutch company Mars One to create a colony on Mars by the next decade (illustrated). The researchers say it has a number of flaws and the proposal is doomed to failure including a risk of suffocation and starvation

The damning study was carried out by students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

In their research they found a number of 'failure conditions' that would ultimately lead to the demise of the crew.

'The first crew fatality would occur approximately 68 days into the mission,' the students write. 

First, the astronauts simply won't have enough food. Based on Mars One's mission plan, the students say the colonists would ultimately starve on Mars.

MARS ONE'S AMBITIOUS PLAN TO COLONISE THE RED PLANET

2018 - By this year Mars One wants to place a lander on Mars - the construction of which has not yet begun - to test landing technologies and also practice communicating with satellites in orbit.

2020 - This year Mars One plans to send a rover to the surface to find a suitable site for the future habitat.

2022-2023 - Mars One wants to send six SpaceX's Dragon capsules - which SpaceX has yet to agree to – as the core habitable modules of the colony, connected with two inflatable units.

2024 - The first crew are taken to Mars on a hypothetical Mars Transit Vehicle - although no concrete plans are available for how this spacecraft would work.

2025 onwards - Additional crew habitat units are launched and added to the colony.

Next, one of the goals of Mars One is to grow crops in some of the habitats on the red planet.

But according to the students, this would create huge amounts of oxygen, in turn creating highly flammable environments.

Oxygen would need to be vented while nitrogen levels would need to be maintained to keep up the air pressure; however, the technology to do this on another planet has not yet been invented.

'Our habitation simulations revealed that crop growth, if large enough to provide 100 per cent of the settlement's food, will produce unsafe oxygen levels in the habitat,' the researchers write.

'As a result, some form of oxygen removal system is required - a technology that has not yet been developed for spaceflight.'

Humidity within these modules would also likely be around 100 per cent - something that is not fatal, but certainly uncomfortable for the astronauts.

They also say that spare and replacement parts will be greatly needed but, owing to the nine-month or so trip time from Earth to Mars, these will be hard to come by.

First the scientists say that the astronauts will not have enough food and will starve. Plants will also produce too much oxygen in their habitats (illustrated) - causing suffocation and also posing a significant risk of explosions. There will also not be enough spare parts to keep the colony maintained

First the scientists say that the astronauts will not have enough food and will starve. Plants will also produce too much oxygen in their habitats (illustrated) - causing suffocation and also posing a significant risk of explosions. There will also not be enough spare parts to keep the colony maintained

The researchers also say that spare and replacement parts will be greatly needed by frequent resupply missions to the red planet (illustrated) but, owing to the nine-month or so trip time from Earth to Mars, these will be hard to come by

The researchers also say that spare and replacement parts will be greatly needed by frequent resupply missions to the red planet (illustrated) but, owing to the nine-month or so trip time from Earth to Mars, these will be hard to come by

'After 130 months on the Martian surface, spare parts compose 62 per cent of the mass transported to the Martian surface,' they write.

And finally, they point out that even getting all the necessary equipment to Mars will require 15 launches of Space X's upcoming super-rocket, the Falcon Heavy, at a cost of £2.8 billion ($4.5 billion).

SpaceX are yet to fly this rocket, making the plans to use 15 of them before the launch vehicle has even been tested somewhat ambitious.  

The paper does offer at least one suggestion to ensure the long-term survival of the crew, though.

They say a separate structure could be used to grow food and also store excess oxygen, dishing out only what is need to the modules inhabited by the colonists.

Using separate modules to store plants and excess oxygen could make the crewed modules more habitable (illustrated), but this doesn't solve many of the other problems for the mission including a lack of replacement parts and a lack of technology necessary to make it feasibile

Using separate modules to store plants and excess oxygen could make the crewed modules more habitable (illustrated), but this doesn't solve many of the other problems for the mission including a lack of replacement parts and a lack of technology necessary to make it feasibile

The researchers also point out that even getting all the necessary equipment to Mars (shown) will require 15 launches of Space X's upcoming super-rocket, the Falcon Heavy, at a cost of £2.8 billion ($4.5 billion). 'The first crew fatality would occur approximately 68 days into the mission,' the students write

The researchers also point out that even getting all the necessary equipment to Mars (shown) will require 15 launches of Space X's upcoming super-rocket, the Falcon Heavy, at a cost of £2.8 billion ($4.5 billion). 'The first crew fatality would occur approximately 68 days into the mission,' the students write

Responding to the comments, Mars One CEO Bas Lansdorp told Popular Science that he thinks the findings are incorrect.

'I've talked to very knowledgeable people - experts with companies like Lockheed Martin - who tell me these technologies will work,' he said.

However, he admits that some aspects including a lack of resupplies could be a problem.

'The major challenge of Mars One is keeping everything up and running,' he added.

'We don't believe what we have designed is the best solution. It's a good solution.'



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