Man-made global warming could be irreversible, leaked IPCC report claims


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Global warming is already here, man-made and dangerous, according to a leaked IPCC report seen yesterday.

The report, which is the most severe warning issued yet, also claims it is increasingly likely that the heating trend could be irreversible.

Global warming, it says, is impacting 'all continents and across the oceans,' and further pollution from heat-trapping gases will raise the likelihood of severe impacts for mankind.

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Global warming, it says, is impacting 'all continents and across the oceans'. This map details some of the predicted affects of climate change in different continents. The IPCC claims that no one will be untouched

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on Monday sent governments a final draft of its synthesis report, which combines three earlier, gigantic documents by group.

There is little in the report that wasn't in the other more-detailed versions, but the language is more stark and the report attempts to connect the different scientific disciplines studying problems caused by the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas.

The 127-page draft paints a harsh warning of what's causing global warming and what it will do to humans and the environment. It also describes what can be done about it.

'Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems,' the report says.

Summary of projected changes in crop yields in a previous IPCC report. Yellow indicates studies that project crop yield decreases, blue indicates studies projecting increases

KEY FINDINGS FROM DRAFT REPORT

Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes.

It will increase the likelihood of 'severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.'

This includes extreme weather and rising sea levels, heat waves, flooding and droughts.

Ocean acidification, which comes from the added carbon absorbed by oceans, will harm marine life.

Without changes in emissions, 'climate change risks are likely to be high or very high by the end of the 21st century.'

At the current rate, by mid-century temperatures will increase by about another 2°C (3.6°F)  compared to temperatures from 1986 to 2005.

By the end of the century, that scenario will bring temperatures that are about 3.7°C (6.7°F) warmer. 

The impact on the Earth could already be considered dangerous, the report claims.

Depending on circumstances and values, 'currently observed impacts might already be considered dangerous,' the report says.

It mentions extreme weather and rising sea levels, such as heat waves, flooding and droughts. It even raises, as an earlier report did, the idea that climate change will worsen violent conflicts and refugee problems and could hinder efforts to grow more food.

And ocean acidification, which comes from the added carbon absorbed by oceans, will harm marine life, it says.

Without changes in greenhouse gas emissions, 'climate change risks are likely to be high or very high by the end of the 21st century,' the report says.

In 2009, countries across the globe set a goal of limiting global warming to about another 1°C  (2°F) above current levels.

But the report says that it is looking more likely that the world will shoot past that point. Limiting warming to that much is possible but would require dramatic and immediate cuts in carbon dioxide pollution.

The report says if the world continues to spew greenhouse gases at its accelerating rate, it's likely that by mid-century temperatures will increase by about another 2°C (3.6°F)  compared to temperatures from 1986 to 2005.

And by the end of the century, that scenario will bring temperatures that are about 3.7°C (6.7°F) warmer. 

Projected temperature change from 2081-2100. For the first time, the report connects hotter global temperatures to hotter global tempers. Top scientists are saying that climate change will complicate and worsen existing global security problems, such as civil wars, strife between nations and refugees

'The report tells us once again what we know with a greater degree of certainty: that climate change is real, it is caused by us, and it is already causing substantial damage to us and our environment,' Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann.

'If there is one take home point of this report it is this: We have to act now.'

John Christy of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, is in the tiny minority of scientists who are sceptical of mainstream science's claim that global warming is a major problem.

He says people will do OK: 'Humans are clever. We shall adapt to whatever happens.'

While projections show that the world will warm and climate will change, there's still a level of uncertainty about how much, and that makes the problem all about how much risk we accept, said MIT climate scientist Kerry Emanuel.

If it's soon and only a little risk, he said, that's not too bad, but when you look at the risk curve the other end of it is 'very frightening.'

The draft report used the word risk 351 times in just 127 pages. The final report will be issued after governments and scientists go over the draft line by line in an October conference in Copenhagen.

HOW IS CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTED TO AFFECT YOUR AREA?

Europe: In a previous report, the IPCC said it expects 'multiple stresses and systemic failures due to climate change' in the Mediterranean. This will increase energy costs and damage tourism from 2050.

North America: Flooding will be a major threat in this area with rain and storms moving north of New York. Southern areas are expected to experience a shortage of water.

Asia:  The majority of the people directly affected by sea level rise will be in southern and eastern Asia. However, water  is also expected to affect most of Asia.

Australasia:  There remains uncertainty about impact in Australasia, but extreme weather is predicted. The Great Barrier Reef will continue to degrade, with warmer  water bleaching more coral.

Africa:  Food security will be a major issue for Africa. Crops and livestock will be affected by both flooding and drought. There will also be more soil erosion from storms.

Central and South America:  Scientists expect Northern Brazil may lose 22 per cent of its annual rainfall by 2100, while the area around Chile could get a 25 per cent increase.



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