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An intense earthquake swarm below the surface of a volcano in Iceland is raising fears that it could erupt and wreak havoc on air travel in Europe.

In its latest advisory, the Icelandic Meteorological Office bumped its aviation alert level to orange – the second highest level on its five-colour scale – and acknowledged that the risk of an eruption has increased.

Seismic activity is still occurring at the Bardarbunga volcano, although there are no signs of magma moving to the surface as of today. 

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Here we go again? An ash cloud erupts from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano in 2010

The Icelandic Meteorological Office raised its alert level after a major earthquake was detected yesterday. With a magnitude of 4.5, it was the strongest earthquake measured in the region since 1996.

The agency said: 'Presently there are no signs of eruption, but it cannot be excluded that the current activity will result in an explosive subglacial eruption, leading to an outburst flood and ash emission.'

Seismologists have been monitoring two earthquake swarms since they were first detected within Iceland's largest volcanic system Saturday. 

Bardarbunga, located under the Vatnajokull glacier at nearly 6,600 feet above sea level, last erupted in 1910.

Scientists said there are presently two scenarios.

One is an explosion outside the glacier, leading to minor ash emissions and troubles locally. The second is an eruption occurring inside the glacier.

Seismologist Martin Hensch said the latter could lead to ash being sent high into the atmosphere. Such a scenario would threaten to disrupt air travel.

Related: 12-mile-high ash cloud over Indonesia as volcano erupted

Travel nightmare: The Eyjafjallajokull eruption in 2010 forced airlines to cancel more than 100,000 flights

Airlines and Eurocontrol, the agency responsible for co-ordinating flights in European airspace, are keeping a close eye on the situation and hoping to avoid a repeat of 2010.

That's when Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano, located in a different range, erupted with a massive ash cloud that shut down much of Europe's airspace, causing massive disruptions for millions of travellers.

More than 100,000 flights were cancelled over six days, costing an estimated £1.2 billion, Bloomberg Businessweek reported.

Iceland's highest aviation alert level is red. It is activated when an eruption is imminent or in progress and a cloud of ash is likely.