sciencetech-blog

comments

In recent months Nasa has been ramping up excitement for sending humans to Mars, outlining its path to the red planet, and showcasing some of the technologies that will help people get there.

But as revealed in a 286-page National Research Council (NRC) report commissioned by the agency, Nasa has been warned that its efforts will be doomed to fail if it does not change its methods.

The scathing assessment claims that without sufficient funding, a clear goal, or help from nations such as China, Nasa will not be capable of making the next giant leap for mankind.

A scathing review of Nasa policy, by the National Research Council, warns that the agency will never land humans on Mars (artist's impression of Curiosity landing shown) if the budget of the agency is not sustained in accordance with inflation. Nasa also needs a clear path to Mars and new partners like China, says the report

According to the NRC's report, Pathways to Exploration - Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration, the U.S. should abandon its 'flexible approach' to human missions beyond Earth, set Mars as its ultimate goal and open the door to partnerships with other partners including China.

This flexible approach currently involves the construction of a heavy-lift rocket known as the Space Launch System (SLS) and a manned capsule spacecraft called Orion.

Both of these are seen as necessities for future missions beyond low-Earth orbit - but as of yet neither has a solid goal beyond a few test flights leading up to 2021.

The NRC recommends Nasa chooses one of three stepping-stone approaches toward Mars, that build technological know-how through a series of well-defined preliminary missions.

All three options begin with the International Space Station (ISS).

The station is seen as vital in testing not only technologies for long-term space travel, but also the psychological and biological strains that will be felt by astronauts.

However, the report claims Nasa's current plan of operating the ISS into the next decade, possibly as far as 2028, alongside assembling the technologies to land humans on Mars is not feasible.

Continuing on this path 'is to invite failure, disillusionment, and the loss of the longstanding international perception that human spaceflight is something the United States does best,' said the NRC in its report.

Two of the options then involve sending humans back to the moon, something not favoured by the Obama administration.

'I just have to say pretty bluntly here: We've been there before,' Obama said in 2010 when outlining Nasa's space policy for the forthcoming years.

President Obama has repeatedly stated his opposition to returning to the moon (artist's illustration of a cancelled Nasa concept shown), saying we have been there before, and should instead look to do new missions such as sending astronauts to an asteroid and ultimately, of course, exploring the surface of Mars

But these paths would be less technologically daunting, NRC panel co-chairman Jonathan Lunine of Cornell University said.

One suggestion is that Nasa could follow the International Space Station program, which currently costs the United States about £1.8 billion ($3 billion) a year, with a series of lunar sorties - an outpost on the moon and then a mission to Mars, according to the report.

The other moon-based option would follow the space station with human missions to an orbit beyond the moon, then to an asteroid in its native orbit, then to the lunar surface, the moons of Mars, Martian orbit and then to Mars itself.

This would have the most stops en route to Mars, but poses the least technological risk because milestones have to be met along the way, claimed the NRC.

The third path includes Nasa's current plan to robotically capture an asteroid, redirect it into a high orbit around the moon and send astronauts there to explore.

The report suggests that the path should continue with missions to the moons of Mars, then on to Martian orbit, and finally to the surface of the planet.

Nasa's Orion spacecraft, illustration shown, is due to complete its first unmanned test flight towards the end of this year. The spacecraft will eventually be able to take four astronauts on missions lasting at least 21 days, although this could be extended with a service module currently being researched and developed by Esa

Nasa said it supports the panel's findings.

'There is a consensus that our horizon goal should be a human mission to Mars,' the agency said in a statement.

'The pathways thrust of the report complements Nasa's ongoing approach.'

All options will depend heavily on international, private sector and other partnerships, according to the report.

'We're really talking about international collaboration of a different scale than what has been conducted in the past,' Lunine said.

In particular, the current relationship of the U.S. with China, which is not a member of the 15-nation space station partnership, needs to be reassessed.

'Given the rapid development of China's capabilities in space, it is in the best interests of the United States to be open to its inclusion in future international partnerships,' says the report.

The panel gave no specific estimate of what a Mars mission would cost, but based on past space initiatives the public would support the endeavor.

'There is a temptation to rush to the question of dollars,' panel co-chairman Mitch Daniels said.

'Dollars is the secondary question.'

The pathways approach to Mars is 'a very different way of doing business,' Lunine added.