Get ready for MORE heatwaves: Chance of dangerously hot summers will increase ten-fold due to climate change, study claims


comments

The chances of heatwaves in Europe have dramatically increased in the past decade as a result of warming temperatures, experts have said.

Extremely warm summers that would be expected to occur twice a century in the early 2000s are now likely to happen twice a decade, a new study from the Met Office found.

The chances of extreme heatwaves, such as the one in 2003 which led to tens of thousands of deaths across Europe, have also increased tenfold, from a one in 1,000 year event to around one in a century.

The UK Met Office says the chance of warmer weather is predicted to increase due to climate change. Warm summers and heatwaves (UK shown in 2003) will increase ten-fold, they say. Warm summers will increase from twice a century to twice a decade, while extreme heatwaves will occur once a century

The UK Met Office says the chance of warmer weather is predicted to increase due to climate change. Warm summers and heatwaves (UK shown in 2003) will increase ten-fold, they say. Warm summers will increase from twice a century to twice a decade, while extreme heatwaves will occur once a century

By the 2040s, such extreme heatwaves could happen every other year if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the research published in the journal Nature Climate Change found.

The study is an update of research carried out in 2004 into the heatwave the previous year.

It found the likelihood of it happening again has at least doubled as a result of human activity, such as burning fossil fuels.

Despite a slowdown in rising global temperatures since the late 1990s, the new study found summer temperatures in central and Mediterranean Europe affected by the 2003 heatwave had increased by 0.81°C (1.4°F) between the 1990s and the period 2004 to 2013.

2014 TO BE THE WORLD'S HOTTEST YEAR SINCE RECORDS BEGAN

2014 is on course to be the hottest year on record not just in the UK but across the entire globe, experts claim.

UK temperatures from the beginning of January to late November were 1.6°C (2.8°F) above the long-term average, making it the warmest since records began in 1910, the Met Office said.

The scorching temperatures mean only an Arctic-like December - which would have to be one of the ten coldest ever - could stop this year from topping the table.

The prediction comes as figures reveal that global temperatures for this year are also above the long-term average from January to October, heralding a warning from experts that the threat from climate change is real. 

The rises have increased the chances of summer heatwaves, defined as having temperatures of 1.6°C (2.8°F) above the long-term average, and extreme hot weather events such as the summer of 2003, which was 2.3C (4.1°F) above the 1961-1990 average.

Dr Nikos Christidis, lead author of the new paper, said: 'Extremely warm summers that would occur twice a century in the early 2000s are now expected to happen twice a decade.

'Moreover, the chances of heatwaves as extreme as seen in 2003 have increased from about one in a 1,000 to about one in a 100 years and are projected to occur every other year by the 2030s to 2040s under continuing greenhouse gas emissions.'

Dr Peter Stott, co-author of the study, said: 'This paper shows how our vulnerability to heat extremes is rapidly changing and we expect that to continue going forward.'

He said that projections of future changes to the climate suggest that by the end of the century, summers as hot as 2003 could be considered 'unusually cool'.

Both the 2004 study and the latest research looked at the same region, covering parts of central and Mediterranean Europe. It did not cover the UK.

Although the UK was less severely affected by the 2003 heatwave, extremely hot summers are also expected to become more common here as a result of a warming climate.

In 2003, an extreme heatwave killed tens of thousands of people in Europe. Shown here is the temperature difference in 2003 compared to 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004. If emissions continue to rise, the occurrence of such heatwaves could increase further to every other year by the 2040s

In 2003, an extreme heatwave killed tens of thousands of people in Europe. Shown here is the temperature difference in 2003 compared to 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004. If emissions continue to rise, the occurrence of such heatwaves could increase further to every other year by the 2040s




IFTTT

Put the internet to work for you.

Turn off or edit this Recipe

0 comments:

Post a Comment